Climate Change

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tyweather
Charter Member
Posts: 1000
Location: Surrey, Newton Town Centre

Climate Change

Postby tyweather » Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:31 am

Since we often talk about it I figure why not have a topic about it.

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Glacier
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2416
Location: Okanagan

Re: Climate Change

Postby Glacier » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:35 am

I wouldn't touch this topic with a ten foot pole...

Okay, maybe I'll post some graphs...

dateofpeak.png
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vitog
Weather Observer
Posts: 2
Location: N. Burnaby, BC, 105 m ASL

Re: Climate Change

Postby vitog » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:59 am

Hi! I'm a new member who has been tracking YVR weather data for many years to see how it reacts to global warming. I maintain a MS Access database with all of the YVR daily data since its beginning in 1937, updated at the end of each month. The database calculates various yearly averages, which are then entered into MS Excel spreadsheets and graphed. Here is the main chart that may be of interest. It shows the average yearly temperature for each year along with the average temperature for the previous 30 years. I have other yearly average charts for temperatures, rain, and wind, if anyone is interested.

WxYVR-Yearly Avg Temp-2018.jpg
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Glacier
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Posts: 2416
Location: Okanagan

Re: Climate Change

Postby Glacier » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:56 am

Welcome to he forums. Here's a graph of Kamloops from 1896 to the present showing monthly deviations. November 1896 was the most extreme month on record.

I like to put things in terms of of the standard deviation because it's the only way to compare summer months to winter months. This graph shows that May 2018 was the 2nd most extreme hot month ever recorded....

Kamloopstemperature.png
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vitog
Weather Observer
Posts: 2
Location: N. Burnaby, BC, 105 m ASL

Re: Climate Change

Postby vitog » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:52 am

Glacier, what temperature units are shown in your graph? Also, it appears that the straight line of red dots is a trend line. Is that correct?

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Glacier
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2416
Location: Okanagan

Re: Climate Change

Postby Glacier » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:49 am

vitog wrote:Glacier, what temperature units are shown in your graph? Also, it appears that the straight line of red dots is a trend line. Is that correct?

No temperature units. Just deviations. As in, let's say that the standard deviation for January is 5 degrees, and you have a month 10 degrees below normal. That gives you a value of -2. Let's say the standard deviation for July is 2 degrees. Then a month that's 4 degrees below normal gives you a value of -2.

Yes, the red line is the trend. Averages are going up and extremes are going down over time.

Top 5 most extreme hot months (deviations above normal):
1) April 1934 = 2.82
2) May 2018 = 2.78
3) July 1906 = 2.77
4) August 1898 = 2.74
5) April 1915 = 2.60

Top 5 most extreme cold months:
1) November 1896 = -4.17
2) February 1936 = -3.90
3) January 1950 = -3.74
4) November 1985 = -3.61
5) January 1916 = -3.30

Here is another graph for Kamloops showing the actual winter temperatures.

kamloops30yearrunningaverage.png


Here's one you might like for Vancouver. Not the airport, but the amalgamation data EC uses (they are currently using the Vancouver Harbour station). Notice that December used to be the hottest winter month. Now it's the coldest.

30yeartempvan.png
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Rain_Down_On_Me
Weather Fanatic
Posts: 947
Location: Fraser Heights

Re: Climate Change

Postby Rain_Down_On_Me » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:20 pm

When I see people outright reject agw, I want evidence that matches the mountains of evidence pointing to human caused forcing. I want to see credible alternate theories. And furthermore I want to see peer reviewed literature. Where is it?

I would honestly love to see it. Until then I have no reason to doubt anthropogenic causes. I trust climate science, and will until given some other, more credible sources.

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Glacier
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2416
Location: Okanagan

Re: Climate Change

Postby Glacier » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:50 pm

Rain_Down_On_Me wrote:When I see people outright reject agw, I want evidence that matches the mountains of evidence pointing to human caused forcing. I want to see credible alternate theories. And furthermore I want to see peer reviewed literature. Where is it?

I would honestly love to see it. Until then I have no reason to doubt anthropogenic causes. I trust climate science, and will until given some other, more credible sources.


In fairness to the critics, most don't reject AGW outright. Many don't even disagree with anything the IPCC says. Some become outcasts because they don't think the warming will be catastrophic (eg. Dr. Judith Curry) and others get thrown out into the cold because they don't think the proposed solutions are the best way to solve the problem (eg. Dr. Bjorn Lomborg).

The reason Judith Curry says it's not catastrophic (and she's a climate scientist) is that most of the warming happens from the first 20 ppm.

co2xx.jpg


The reason Lomborg says the solutions aren't good is that we spend trillions to save billions in damage. We could take this same money and solve world hunger and build infrastructure to save everyone from the rising sea levels for far less money.
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