2018-2019 Winter Discussion

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AbbyJr
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Winter 2018/2019 Thoughts and Discussions

Postby AbbyJr » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:44 pm

Hey everyone, since it is now September, I figured we could start a thread discussing the possibilities and predictions for this upcoming winter. Will it be cold and snowy? cold and dry? mild and rainy? mild and dry? Lets all contribute our thoughts. :D

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SardisBCwxman
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Re: Winter 2018/2019 Thoughts and Discussions

Postby SardisBCwxman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:56 pm

AbbyJr wrote:Hey everyone, since it is now September, I figured we could start a thread discussing the possibilities and predictions for this upcoming winter. Will it be cold and snowy? cold and dry? mild and rainy? mild and dry? Lets all contribute our thoughts. :D
Snowmember followed by Rainber, then Mowvember if you have facial hair (Forrests department) Decentber, mild Christmas, the new year brings the knuckles out of playoff contention and a reversal of June Junuary, Nitos on a roll February brings Feb up with winter Hawk heads north, Jr. claims his sensor has been taken over by aliens. Hound starts peeing in the house. :lol: we March into Summer. Forrest runs away from B.C. Gooseman takes the last Greyhound to Quebec to salvage snow. Oh and Ms. Creeker has the largest pot plants on the sunshine coast.
Sardine Can


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Monty67
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Re: 2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Postby Monty67 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:51 am


Garbage. Next please!
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Monty67
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Re: 2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Postby Monty67 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:01 am

Should be noted that almost any winter forecast I’ve seen appears to be leaning heavily on El Niño climo. However, to this point at least, there is no sign of El Niño getting a foothold at all. The general model consensus was/is for the ENSO 3/4 regions to warm significantly during September and October. If we continue to avoid this, then it will be interesting to see if we see any forecast adjustments later this fall.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Abby_wx
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Re: 2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Postby Abby_wx » Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:43 pm

In any event, El Nino doesn't typically affect us very much until the second week of January; so a good December/early January is always on the table.
"It's not logical... it's meteorological."

Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).
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AbbyJr
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Re: 2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Postby AbbyJr » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:46 pm

It should also be noted that even a weak El Nino can still give us a solid active winter. Tyler Hamilton said 2006/2007 is one of their analog years for this upcoming winter forecast, and thus we could see another active November. Even if this season ends up warmer and drier than normal, that doesn't mean we won't see at least one or two arctic blasts and snow events. Obviously, there are no promises that this upcoming winter will be as exciting as 2006/2007, but the point is that there is no reason to worry about a 2010/2011 repeat either.
Last edited by AbbyJr on Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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SardisBCwxman
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Re: 2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Postby SardisBCwxman » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:48 pm

Monty67 wrote:Should be noted that almost any winter forecast I’ve seen appears to be leaning heavily on El Niño climo. However, to this point at least, there is no sign of El Niño getting a foothold at all. The general model consensus was/is for the ENSO 3/4 regions to warm significantly during September and October. If we continue to avoid this, then it will be interesting to see if we see any forecast adjustments later this fall.
This is good news indeed I was hoping to see some wintery goods at my new home in the central valley this winter.
Last edited by SardisBCwxman on Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sardine Can

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SardisBCwxman
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Re: 2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Postby SardisBCwxman » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:49 pm

Monty67 wrote:

Garbage. Next please!
I hope it's egg on their face at TWN this winter.
Sardine Can

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SardisBCwxman
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Location: Sardis, B.C. Elevation: 0 Ft.

Re: 2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Postby SardisBCwxman » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:50 pm

AbbyJr wrote:It should also be noted that even a weak El Nino can still give us a solid active winter. Tyler Hamilton said 2006/2007 is one of their analog years for this upcoming winter forecast, and thus we could see another active November. Even if this season ends up warmer and drier than normal, that doesn't mean we won't see at least one or two arctic blasts and snow events. Obviously, there are no promises that this upcoming winter will be as exciting as 2006/2007, but the point is that there is no reason to worry about a 2010/2011 repeat either.
Good explanation Jr. :D
Sardine Can


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