November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

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tyweather
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Location: Surrey, Newton Town Centre

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby tyweather » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:14 pm

Looks like the 18z is giving us a bit of a present:

Image

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AbbyJr
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Location: Central Abbotsford 50 m ASL

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:16 pm

Catnip wrote:
Monty67 wrote:
Catnip wrote:BIG RIDGE!

1.png

It does get cold late in the run and then the ridge gets absolutely murdered.


Yup. Perhaps a period of zonal flow and then hopefully another ridge in a better position towards the last little bit of Dec?


At least we something good in the long range. That ridge could still perhaps hold stronger than currently modelled. We have to monitor the trends. Heck, the ridge could just as easily vanish completely next run. This is the GFS after all. :lol:

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Flakey
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Posts: 36
Location: Newton

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Flakey » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:25 pm

Yahoo Winters back on!!!!! Until later when it is cancelled. Then tomorrow when its back. :D
Newton 72nd & 128th

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Catnip
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Location: Coquitlam

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Catnip » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:36 pm

Ok, now we are talking:

My Dec 17 prediction is still on the table... for now :lol: :lol:

1.png
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Coquitlam/Mundy Park
Elevation: 530ft

Personal Weather Station: http://tinyurl.com/ptjynsn

Hawk - "We are in PATTERN LOCK Jr!!! Who cares what the GFS and Euro weeklies say about 10 days from now hahahahahaha"

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Typeing3
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Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:02 pm

Catnip wrote:
Monty67 wrote:
Catnip wrote:BIG RIDGE!

1.png

It does get cold late in the run and then the ridge gets absolutely murdered.


Yup. Perhaps a period of zonal flow and then hopefully another ridge in a better position towards the last little bit of Dec?

I see my late December arctic blast prediction is gaining traction?
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

Rain_Down_On_Me
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Posts: 773
Location: Fraser Heights

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Rain_Down_On_Me » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:47 pm

Catnip wrote:Ok, now we are talking:

My Dec 17 prediction is still on the table... for now :lol: :lol:

1.png


Hmmmmmm! What have we here...

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Monty67
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Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:34 pm

16 days away but that is getting really close. SE ridge trying to poke in there.

840B82AF-F493-4DCC-B669-06C0F43332A4.png
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Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Hawk
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Location: Willoughby area, Langley

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:05 pm

Michael1 wrote:
Monty67 wrote:
Michael1 wrote:I ll take bullshit winters which were supposed to be good, for a thousand, Alex.....

What were your expectations heading into this winter?

A fair question, which i will endeavor to answer.
Firstly, I will discuss last winter. It has been widely regarded as "one of the best". that is open to interpretation however. While it is true that many places received higher snowfall amounts, others didn't. for example, except for February's snow, here at sea level, it was difficult to get higher accumulations. Although we did get some precip associated with outflow, most of the colder air here did not come from the interior, as a normal arctic outbreak would, but down the coast. This made temperatures during snow events, marginal at best ( -.05 to +1). Overall, the average temperatures for highs were cooler to be sure.
My expectations for this winter, looking at some other years, especially the nineties, were for a stormier fall. Looking at 1990 for example, when the enso was very slightly positive and the PDO was still in a warm phase, we received record amounts of rainfall, so much rain in fact, that the storm sewer covers on Cook street in Victoria, were blown off. Each storm we endured always was followed by much cooler air, until finally a true arctic outbreak occurred on Dec. 18.
1992 Had strong positive enso numbers until June- but never entered weak la nina territory in the months following, yet the east Island had its usual run of pacific storms and had some very cold events, Again with a warm PDO.
So what were my expectations for this winter? 1) a more active storm track, given the mildly negative PDO and the continual falling enso ssts; more below freezing night temps (not necessarily consecutively) and a less persistent el nino pattern, given that it shouldn't even be a consideration. As for arctic out breaks, I would have thought 2-3 events of 7- 10 days of duration wouldn't have been out of place, given how this season was looking (as someone put it, at least on paper) . But this intransigent pattern we've had before- then it was blamed on an anomalous pool of warmer water that existed from Alaska down the coast. Maybe my eyes are cheated, but it is now being presented as cooler than normal. I won't get into solar activity, since there is some debate as to its effect ( funny that). Anyways, my expectations weren't for anything impossible, but for what should have been. Our weather data has been rendered practically useless by a rapidly changing climate. 30 year averages, probability and analogs , in my opinion, are of limited use.


Thats it Mikey...let it all out. :x :x :x :x :x You should feel much better now. And i would like to add: It's funny how when this winter was mentioned a few weeks ago, forecasters said that due to LNina and low solar activity, we are in for a snowier winter! Butttttttttt, then when it is apparent (like around now) that it is looking more like and ENino instead, they start looking at other factors that influence our weather and blame it on -PDO -NPA -FU -BS lmao :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: . SO like i said, anything after about 7 dreams is dreamland. Ya we may get a ridge for a few days...my guess is that is about 95% accurate, going into day 7-10 approx. After that, who knows. Look at the Neederschalgees in clown range, members all over the place. They pretty much have every weather option covered hahahahaha :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Enuf said

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Typeing3
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Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:23 pm

Monty67 wrote:16 days away but that is getting really close. SE ridge trying to poke in there.

840B82AF-F493-4DCC-B669-06C0F43332A4.png

Perhaps a warning shot?

I'm still thinking we will have to wait until Jan for the good stuff.
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

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AbbyJr
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Posts: 4068
Location: Central Abbotsford 50 m ASL

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:27 pm

CTV interviewed meteorologist Brett Anderson from AccuWeather for the Canadian winter forecast for Canada:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5NYRSruEjg


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