November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

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Michael1
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Location: Parksville BC

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Michael1 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:41 pm

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Monty67 wrote:
Michael1 wrote:
Monty67 wrote:What were your expectations heading into this winter?

A fair question, which i will endeavor to answer.
Firstly, I will discuss last winter. It has been widely regarded as "one of the best". that is open to interpretation however. While it is true that many places received higher snowfall amounts, others didn't. for example, except for February's snow, here at sea level, it was difficult to get higher accumulations. Although we did get some precip associated with outflow, most of the colder air here did not come from the interior, as a normal arctic outbreak would, but down the coast. This made temperatures during snow events, marginal at best ( -.05 to +1). Overall, the average temperatures for highs were cooler to be sure.
My expectations for this winter, looking at some other years, especially the nineties, were for a stormier fall. Looking at 1990 for example, when the enso was very slightly positive and the PDO was still in a warm phase, we received record amounts of rainfall, so much rain in fact, that the storm sewer covers on Cook street in Victoria, were blown off. Each storm we endured always was followed by much cooler air, until finally a true arctic outbreak occurred on Dec. 18.
1992 Had strong positive enso numbers until June- but never entered weak la nina territory in the months following, yet the east Island had its usual run of pacific storms and had some very cold events, Again with a warm PDO.
So what were my expectations for this winter? 1) a more active storm track, given the mildly negative PDO and the continual falling enso ssts; more below freezing night temps (not necessarily consecutively) and a less persistent el nino pattern, given that it shouldn't even be a consideration. As for arctic out breaks, I would have thought 2-3 events of 7- 10 days of duration wouldn't have been out of place, given how this season was looking (as someone put it, at least on paper) . But this intransigent pattern we've had before- then it was blamed on an anomalous pool of warmer water that existed from Alaska down the coast. Maybe my eyes are cheated, but it is now being presented as cooler than normal. I won't get into solar activity, since there is some debate as to its effect ( funny that). Anyways, my expectations weren't for anything impossible, but for what should have been. Our weather data has been rendered practically useless by a rapidly changing climate. 30 year averages, probability and analogs , in my opinion, are of limited use.


Seems reasonable, although 3 events of 7-10 days during one winter would be pretty upper end stuff. I’d give it some time still. Winter hasn’t started yet and you wrote this as if it’s already over. Maybe my views are slightly blinded due to my location. Long term snowfall trends have not been altered that much at Shawnigan Lake. Less arctic air certainly, but snowfall hasn’t declined as much.

Well, even when I was growing up in Victoria, the sooke hills and the malahat always had snow during the winter, at least most winters.As far as this winter is concerned, usually mechanisms are already in place , but this year, the only mechanism is a persistent ridge of death. I would welcome being 100% wrong , but I sadly don't believe I am. We will constantly be looking 14 days out, trying to glean some changes. It seems we've done this before, in other failed winters.
Last edited by Michael1 on Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Catnip
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Location: Coquitlam

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Catnip » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:54 pm

BIG RIDGE!

1.png
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stuffradio
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Location: Maple Ridge

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby stuffradio » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:58 pm

storm wrote:
Catnip wrote:Euro Ensembles showing the (death) ridge present from around Dec 4 to Dec 14 (as far out as it goes).

Frig

2nd half of December will be better (if we all keep saying this, it may happen!)

:D


It will be hard to beat the first half.

Nah, we'll just get temps around 20C by New Years Eve ;)

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Catnip
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Location: Coquitlam

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Catnip » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:00 pm

stuffradio wrote:
storm wrote:
Catnip wrote:Euro Ensembles showing the (death) ridge present from around Dec 4 to Dec 14 (as far out as it goes).

Frig

2nd half of December will be better (if we all keep saying this, it may happen!)

:D


It will be hard to beat the first half.

Nah, we'll just get temps around -20C by New Years Eve ;)


:D
Coquitlam/Mundy Park
Elevation: 530ft

Personal Weather Station: http://tinyurl.com/ptjynsn

Currently sharing Hawk's dream.....

Rain_Down_On_Me
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Posts: 828
Location: Fraser Heights

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Rain_Down_On_Me » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:04 pm

Well, even when I was growing up in Victoria, the sooke hills and the malahat always had snow during the winter, at least most winters.As far as this winter is concerned, usually mechanisms are already in place , but this year, the only mechanism is a persistent ridge of death. I would welcome being 100% wrong , but I sadly don't believe I am. We will constantly be looking 14 days out, trying to glean some changes. It seems we've done this before, in other failed winters.[/quote]

The climate has changed massively in my lifetime and I'm 29. There is no telling what the weather will do next and it is now becoming one of the biggest factors in determining our weather. I find it hard to disagree that the mechanisms for a warm winter are in place and I also hope that we are wrong. We keep getting locked into long term patterns. But I still think all this talk about late December/January could be legit.

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AbbyJr
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Location: Central Abbotsford 50 m ASL

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:07 pm

Monty67 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
storm wrote:
Wasn't the overall idea idea mid December?


Some thought at first mid December but I got the feeling people were leaning more so towards end of month now.

I was on the mid December train. Looking doubtful for now.


Is it typically a -QBO or +QBO that promotes the GOA block and cold arctic air coming down into BC?

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Monty67
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Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:10 pm

Catnip wrote:BIG RIDGE!

1.png

It does get cold late in the run and then the ridge gets absolutely murdered.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Monty67
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Posts: 5410
Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:11 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Monty67 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Some thought at first mid December but I got the feeling people were leaning more so towards end of month now.

I was on the mid December train. Looking doubtful for now.


Is it typically a -QBO or +QBO that promotes the GOA block and cold arctic air coming down into BC?

+QBO is considered better by some but the results are mixed at times.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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AbbyJr
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Location: Central Abbotsford 50 m ASL

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:12 pm

Monty67 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Monty67 wrote:I was on the mid December train. Looking doubtful for now.


Is it typically a -QBO or +QBO that promotes the GOA block and cold arctic air coming down into BC?

+QBO is considered better by some but the results are mixed at times.


Was the December 2008 arctic blast associated with a positive or negative QBO?

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Catnip
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Posts: 3556
Location: Coquitlam

Re: November 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Catnip » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:14 pm

Monty67 wrote:
Catnip wrote:BIG RIDGE!

1.png

It does get cold late in the run and then the ridge gets absolutely murdered.


Yup. Perhaps a period of zonal flow and then hopefully another ridge in a better position towards the last little bit of Dec?
Coquitlam/Mundy Park
Elevation: 530ft

Personal Weather Station: http://tinyurl.com/ptjynsn

Currently sharing Hawk's dream.....


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