Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

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Abby_wx
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Abby_wx » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:12 pm

And 0.3C above normal down here. I remember near the beginning of the month some people saying it might be the coldest November in years... well, that really did depends on your location. :lol:
"It's not logical... it's meteorological."

Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).
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Glacier
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Glacier » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:22 pm

Abby_wx wrote:And 0.3C above normal down here. I remember near the beginning of the month some people saying it might be the coldest November in years... well, that really did depends on your location. :lol:

Lol, ya, that sure didn't pan out! The most above normal places in Canada were in the southeast corner of BC at up to 1.5C above normal.

Coquitlam79
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Coquitlam79 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:00 am

With many on the topic of west coast ridging (due to this current pattern), some are saying it has become more prevalent recently. I beg to differ. It was just as prevalent in the early to mid 2000s if not more prevalent back than. I looked back at some periods of ridging and extended dry spells. The winter of 2000-2001 was the granddaddy, most obvious one. But 02-03 was also dominated by ridging. We also saw long dry spells or ridge dominated periods in Dec 2003 (a cold pattern) February 2005, Nov and most of Dec 2005, January and February 2009, Dec 2009, and a warm and drier than normal period around the Olympics in 2010. This decade so far only had 13-14 as a winter dominated by the RRR and although the following year,14-15, saw many periods of ridging it was interspersed with atmospheric river patterns. So overall precip was normal or above normal that year despite more overall dry days. Dec 2011 and Jan 2013 saw extended dry spells but other than that the other winters this decade have not seen much ridging and the past 2 winters were almost devoid of any west coast ridging patterns. I had predicted a bit of a repeat of 00-01 but looking back at that winter the pattern was actually quite different than what we are currently seeing. Nov 2000 was extremely dry and this November was super wet. Also the ridge position was different we had a classic split flow literally the entire late Fall and Winter in 2000-2001 so California and Alaska were getting hit with storms and we were high and dry. This current ridge pattern looks more like Dec 2013 although I think it will break down before Christmas. 12z GFS shows the ridge retrograding around the 20th and this is a typical time frame of this type of ridge pattern this time of year.

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Monty67
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:06 am

The driest winters in our climate records are from like a century ago. Probably a different type of ridge pattern. But I’m sure those droughts would be linked to climate change if they happened today.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Glacier
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Glacier » Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:20 pm

Monty67 wrote:The driest winters in our climate records are from like a century ago. Probably a different type of ridge pattern. But I’m sure those droughts would be linked to climate change if they happened today.

Everything is linked to climate change including ISIS. If Hilter were around today, you know that would also be caused by climate change.

As for winter precipitation, it's simply not true that it's been getting wetter. In fact, it's the opposite (the other seasons have been getting wetter, but not the winter)...

Kamloopsprecip.png
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Michael1
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Michael1 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:48 pm

Glacier wrote:
Monty67 wrote:The driest winters in our climate records are from like a century ago. Probably a different type of ridge pattern. But I’m sure those droughts would be linked to climate change if they happened today.

Everything is linked to climate change including ISIS. If Hilter were around today, you know that would also be caused by climate change.

As for winter precipitation, it's simply not true that it's been getting wetter. In fact, it's the opposite (the other seasons have been getting wetter, but not the winter)...

Kamloopsprecip.png

Hitler invented climate change so it would be easier to dig his bunkers in thawed ground.

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Abby_wx
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Abby_wx » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:47 pm

Glacier wrote:As for winter precipitation, it's simply not true that it's been getting wetter. In fact, it's the opposite (the other seasons have been getting wetter, but not the winter)...

Kamloopsprecip.png


Probably a different story on the coast. Springs and summers have been very dry lately. Not sure about winters. Annual precip seems to be about the same, so maybe wetter falls.
"It's not logical... it's meteorological."

Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =IBCABBOT1

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Glacier
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Glacier » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:32 pm

Abby_wx wrote:Probably a different story on the coast. Springs and summers have been very dry lately. Not sure about winters. Annual precip seems to be about the same, so maybe wetter falls.

Winter precipitation seems to have peaked in the 1950s (which ironically was one of the driest decades on record)...

agassiz.png
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