Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Moderators: Abby_wx, Leighbugs

Hawk
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 3539

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:31 pm

gross...wtf? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4545
Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:49 pm

All four of our forecasts are relatively similar. I notice all of us are predicting early December warmth slowly transitioning into a cold/active pattern later on.
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4545
Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:52 pm

Borrowed this off the other forum
Image
Image
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

User avatar
Hound
Charter Member
Posts: 2669
Location: N.E. Surrey, BC

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Hound » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:04 pm

Hawk wrote:gross...wtf? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


I know you want some! :lol:
Fraser Heights, Surrey. (Elevation: 85 M. 278 Ft.)

User avatar
Monty67
Charter Member
Posts: 5457
Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:22 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Monty67 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Good forecast Hawk! I'm not so sure we will see any cold pattern lock this winter. But I do think we will see several arctic outbreaks. I still think we will see something good mid December. I don't put much stock in the long range Euro or CFS right now as its still really early. The Euro's been known to do sudden 180 at the last minute and the CFS has been flip flopping back and forth. No need to panic as of yet imo.

Think about it, the EC GEPS model, for example does not show a La Nina pattern for Canada at all throughout the beginning of Dec...

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.26.21 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.27.14 PM.png

I have a hard time believing this is going to verify and if it does, I can't imagine the pattern would continue through the rest of the month.

The cfs has a huge problem with persistence bias. If it’s cold it thinks it will stay cold for the next month. When it’s warm it wants to stay warm. When we were cold in early November it was forecasting a cold December. Now that it’s warmer it is forecasting a warm December.


Does the GEPS have the same problem? Because as I posted in the maps, it shows a very warm start to Dec for pretty much all of Canada, which isn't typical of La Nina.

I’m honestly not sure on that one.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

User avatar
AbbyJr
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4530
Location: Central Abbotsford 50 m ASL

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:29 pm

Typeing3 wrote:Borrowed this off the other forum
Image
Image


What forum? Link?

User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4545
Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:39 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:Borrowed this off the other forum
Image
Image


What forum? Link?

It's the American one.http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/t ... ntry272064
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

User avatar
AbbyJr
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4530
Location: Central Abbotsford 50 m ASL

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:52 pm

Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:Borrowed this off the other forum
Image
Image


What forum? Link?

It's the American one.http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/t ... ntry272064


Thanks! So question, what is the determining factor on as to whether a La Nina will be west or east based?

User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4545
Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:03 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
What forum? Link?

It's the American one.http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/t ... ntry272064


Thanks! So question, what is the determining factor on as to whether a La Nina will be west or east based?

East based: coolest waters relative to normal are located in the eastern equitorial Pacific
West based: coolest waters relative to normal are locatedd in the western equitorial Pacific.
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

User avatar
AbbyJr
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4530
Location: Central Abbotsford 50 m ASL

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:23 pm

Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:It's the American one.http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/t ... ntry272064


Thanks! So question, what is the determining factor on as to whether a La Nina will be west or east based?

East based: coolest waters relative to normal are located in the eastern equitorial Pacific
West based: coolest waters relative to normal are locatedd in the western equitorial Pacific.


Is Nina 3.4 the western equatorial pacific?


Return to “[BC] British Columbia Weather Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: South Island, tyweather, VanCitySouth and 4 guests