Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:51 pm

Missionbcwx wrote:
Monty67 wrote:^nice work. Good luck. And if your wrong don’t worry about it. Pro Mets screw these things up all the time.
Fantastic job there young grasshopper, remember if your wrong I'm sure Mr. M will have you changing diapers as your looser prize. :lol:


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: thanks! :D

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stuffradio
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby stuffradio » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:22 pm

abbyweather wrote:Abbotsford Weather Winter 2017/2018 Forecast

Please bare in mind that my forecast may not be as technical as some and perhaps may not be compiled the exact same way as others, due to my limited knowledge in very complex things such as QBO. However, I decided to take a shot at it and utilize the best of my knowledge. After all, if I screw this up big time, I don't have much to lose other than maybe being made fun of and I can handle that.

Its becoming more and more evident to me that this winter will be colder and snowier than normal. Based on current model data, I think we will bottom out a weak to maybe slightly moderate La Nina. Historically, our snowier winters have been during weak La Nina episodes. This is because stronger ones tend to be more on the cold side and Arctic Air is very dry, so its harder to get the moisture needed to produce snow. In addition to La Nina, we are also moving into a period of low solar activity. Solar has been declining in recent years and looking back at some of our colder/snowier winters, they have mostly fallen during a low solar event. At this point, I see no convincing evidence that this winter will be anything but colder and snowier than normal.

However, this does not mean we will see a repeat of last year. Last winter, we had a number of extended periods of very cold arctic air reloads and ample snowfall. Some localities of the lower mainland had snow on the ground for more than a month at a time. Even if we don’t see a repeat, we certainly could see more snow and cold than normal.

Looking at all the analogs, I’m going with 07/08 being the closest match even though that winter was during a strong La Nina event. No Nina episode is the same and while that winter was not super cold, it certainly was colder than normal and featured a number of short lived but in some cases major snow events. I’m going with the idea that we may not see a major arctic air pattern lock in for a good amount of time, but we will see many shots reach the coast and probably a number of coastal sliders as well producing marginal snow events with one or two widespread snowstorms.

I personally think temperatures will be roughly -1 to -2 below average for the DJF period, with the coldest arctic outbreak in January and the snowiest month in December. As for snowfall, expect to see perhaps 30-40 cm above average this winter. So YVR, which normally see’s 38 cm, could easily see 68 cm. Coquitlam’s average is 67 cm and this year could be around 107 cm. Abbotsford, a little less, maybe 90-100 cm. Overall, expect this winter to be full of fun snowy deserts for us all to enjoy.

For those interested, the analogs I used were:

1964/1965, 1971/1972, 1974/1975, 1984/1985, 1995/1996, 1996/1997, 07/08, 08/09,16/17

I tried to pick analogs that consisted of similar conditions as expected this year, best matched my predictions, and ultimately chose the one I think will end up closest this year.

Nice job! I hope I get 100cm!

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VanCitySouth
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby VanCitySouth » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:36 pm

Bravo abbyweather!

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Hawk
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:46 pm

Nice predicts Mr Monty and JrWeatherNut aka AbbyKid?
So do either of you think that there will be a sustained pattern lock at some point in those 3 months? Right now we have the Lows/troffs dropping down from Alaska (Nito is winning atm) but spinning around west of Haida Gwaii/North Van Isle. I am not happy to see this repeating at the moment. If this pattern stays locked in, we may have a wet/windy and relatively mild Nov/Dec.
I know most of you don't care but here is the official HawkCast: :roll: :roll: :roll:
Dec - Wet/seasonal to mild start. Colder towards end of month (temp will be slightly above normal) Below average snowfall ~20-30%
Jan - more snow/drier/2 arctic episodes / Above avg snow ~20-30% (Temp 1c below avg)
Feb - starts chilly with some snow-another arctic episode- followed by avg second half with mixed bag (temp .5-1 below avg)

Game on!! :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek:
Enuf said

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Monty67
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:08 pm

Hawk wrote:Nice predicts Mr Monty and JrWeatherNut aka AbbyKid?
So do either of you think that there will be a sustained pattern lock at some point in those 3 months? Right now we have the Lows/troffs dropping down from Alaska (Nito is winning atm) but spinning around west of Haida Gwaii/North Van Isle. I am not happy to see this repeating at the moment. If this pattern stays locked in, we may have a wet/windy and relatively mild Nov/Dec.
I know most of you don't care but here is the official HawkCast: :roll: :roll: :roll:
Dec - Wet/seasonal to mild start. Colder towards end of month (temp will be slightly above normal) Below average snowfall ~20-30%
Jan - more snow/drier/2 arctic episodes / Above avg snow ~20-30% (Temp 1c below avg)
Feb - starts chilly with some snow-another arctic episode- followed by avg second half with mixed bag (temp .5-1 below avg)

Game on!! :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek:

Good forecast hawk. If the first half of December ends up mild than your forecast might be a very good one.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:18 pm

Monty67 wrote:
Hawk wrote:Nice predicts Mr Monty and JrWeatherNut aka AbbyKid?
So do either of you think that there will be a sustained pattern lock at some point in those 3 months? Right now we have the Lows/troffs dropping down from Alaska (Nito is winning atm) but spinning around west of Haida Gwaii/North Van Isle. I am not happy to see this repeating at the moment. If this pattern stays locked in, we may have a wet/windy and relatively mild Nov/Dec.
I know most of you don't care but here is the official HawkCast: :roll: :roll: :roll:
Dec - Wet/seasonal to mild start. Colder towards end of month (temp will be slightly above normal) Below average snowfall ~20-30%
Jan - more snow/drier/2 arctic episodes / Above avg snow ~20-30% (Temp 1c below avg)
Feb - starts chilly with some snow-another arctic episode- followed by avg second half with mixed bag (temp .5-1 below avg)

Game on!! :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek:

Good forecast hawk. If the first half of December ends up mild than your forecast might be a very good one.


Good forecast Hawk! I'm not so sure we will see any cold pattern lock this winter. But I do think we will see several arctic outbreaks. I still think we will see something good mid December. I don't put much stock in the long range Euro or CFS right now as its still really early. The Euro's been known to do sudden 180 at the last minute and the CFS has been flip flopping back and forth. No need to panic as of yet imo.

Think about it, the EC GEPS model, for example does not show a La Nina pattern for Canada at all throughout the beginning of Dec...

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.26.21 PM.png


Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.27.14 PM.png


I have a hard time believing this is going to verify and if it does, I can't imagine the pattern would continue through the rest of the month.
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stuffradio
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby stuffradio » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:37 pm

Good forecast hawkeye! We have that huge -NAO coming up which promotes ridging over the NE part of Canada which also pushes down the cold air from Alaska and to the east. That's partially why we are warmer than normal in SW BC.

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Monty67
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:43 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Monty67 wrote:
Hawk wrote:Nice predicts Mr Monty and JrWeatherNut aka AbbyKid?
So do either of you think that there will be a sustained pattern lock at some point in those 3 months? Right now we have the Lows/troffs dropping down from Alaska (Nito is winning atm) but spinning around west of Haida Gwaii/North Van Isle. I am not happy to see this repeating at the moment. If this pattern stays locked in, we may have a wet/windy and relatively mild Nov/Dec.
I know most of you don't care but here is the official HawkCast: :roll: :roll: :roll:
Dec - Wet/seasonal to mild start. Colder towards end of month (temp will be slightly above normal) Below average snowfall ~20-30%
Jan - more snow/drier/2 arctic episodes / Above avg snow ~20-30% (Temp 1c below avg)
Feb - starts chilly with some snow-another arctic episode- followed by avg second half with mixed bag (temp .5-1 below avg)

Game on!! :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek: :geek:

Good forecast hawk. If the first half of December ends up mild than your forecast might be a very good one.


Good forecast Hawk! I'm not so sure we will see any cold pattern lock this winter. But I do think we will see several arctic outbreaks. I still think we will see something good mid December. I don't put much stock in the long range Euro or CFS right now as its still really early. The Euro's been known to do sudden 180 at the last minute and the CFS has been flip flopping back and forth. No need to panic as of yet imo.

Think about it, the EC GEPS model, for example does not show a La Nina pattern for Canada at all throughout the beginning of Dec...

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.26.21 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.27.14 PM.png

I have a hard time believing this is going to verify and if it does, I can't imagine the pattern would continue through the rest of the month.

The cfs has a huge problem with persistence bias. If it’s cold it thinks it will stay cold for the next month. When it’s warm it wants to stay warm. When we were cold in early November it was forecasting a cold December. Now that it’s warmer it is forecasting a warm December.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:46 pm

Monty67 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Monty67 wrote:Good forecast hawk. If the first half of December ends up mild than your forecast might be a very good one.


Good forecast Hawk! I'm not so sure we will see any cold pattern lock this winter. But I do think we will see several arctic outbreaks. I still think we will see something good mid December. I don't put much stock in the long range Euro or CFS right now as its still really early. The Euro's been known to do sudden 180 at the last minute and the CFS has been flip flopping back and forth. No need to panic as of yet imo.

Think about it, the EC GEPS model, for example does not show a La Nina pattern for Canada at all throughout the beginning of Dec...

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.26.21 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 5.27.14 PM.png

I have a hard time believing this is going to verify and if it does, I can't imagine the pattern would continue through the rest of the month.

The cfs has a huge problem with persistence bias. If it’s cold it thinks it will stay cold for the next month. When it’s warm it wants to stay warm. When we were cold in early November it was forecasting a cold December. Now that it’s warmer it is forecasting a warm December.


Does the GEPS have the same problem? Because as I posted in the maps, it shows a very warm start to Dec for pretty much all of Canada, which isn't typical of La Nina.

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Hound
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Hound » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:02 pm

Nice job guys!
My forecast is for Donair poutine!

DSC4243-746x448.jpg
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Fraser Heights, Surrey. (Elevation: 85 M. 278 Ft.)


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