Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

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stuffradio
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby stuffradio » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:35 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Thanks! So question, what is the determining factor on as to whether a La Nina will be west or east based?

East based: coolest waters relative to normal are located in the eastern equitorial Pacific
West based: coolest waters relative to normal are locatedd in the western equitorial Pacific.


Is Nina 3.4 the western equatorial pacific?

3.4 is relatively center
nino-regions.gif
.
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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:39 pm

stuffradio wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:East based: coolest waters relative to normal are located in the eastern equitorial Pacific
West based: coolest waters relative to normal are locatedd in the western equitorial Pacific.


Is Nina 3.4 the western equatorial pacific?

3.4 is relatively center
nino-regions.gif.


Okay, so Nina 4 would West, Nina 3.4 would be centre, and Nina 3 would be east? Therefore, having Nina 4 colder than Nina 3 would mean a West based La Nina?

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Typeing3
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:44 pm

abbyweather wrote:
stuffradio wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Is Nina 3.4 the western equatorial pacific?

3.4 is relatively center
nino-regions.gif.


Okay, so Nina 4 would West, Nina 3.4 would be centre, and Nina 3 would be east? Therefore, having Nina 4 colder than Nina 3 would mean a West based La Nina?

Yeah. :)
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

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stuffradio
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby stuffradio » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:44 pm

abbyweather wrote:
stuffradio wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Is Nina 3.4 the western equatorial pacific?

3.4 is relatively center
nino-regions.gif.


Okay, so Nina 4 would West, Nina 3.4 would be centre, and Nina 3 would be east? Therefore, having Nina 4 colder than Nina 3 would mean a West based La Nina?

Yes

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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:48 pm

Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
stuffradio wrote:3.4 is relatively center
nino-regions.gif.


Okay, so Nina 4 would West, Nina 3.4 would be centre, and Nina 3 would be east? Therefore, having Nina 4 colder than Nina 3 would mean a West based La Nina?

Yeah. :)


I wonder which we will get? Nina 4 is warmer than Nina 3 but there is a significant drop in temps Nina 4 so... Thoughts? This is one area I feel I missed in my winter forecast and should have put more time into. Because whether its a West or East based Nina can be a big difference maker.

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stuffradio
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby stuffradio » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:51 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Okay, so Nina 4 would West, Nina 3.4 would be centre, and Nina 3 would be east? Therefore, having Nina 4 colder than Nina 3 would mean a West based La Nina?

Yeah. :)


I wonder which we will get? Nina 4 is warmer than Nina 3 but there is a significant drop in temps Nina 4 so... Thoughts? This is one area I feel I missed in my winter forecast and should have put more time into. Because whether its a West or East based Nina can be a big difference maker.

It's still safely an east based Nina currently.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:55 pm

stuffradio wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:Yeah. :)


I wonder which we will get? Nina 4 is warmer than Nina 3 but there is a significant drop in temps Nina 4 so... Thoughts? This is one area I feel I missed in my winter forecast and should have put more time into. Because whether its a West or East based Nina can be a big difference maker.

It's still safely an east based Nina currently.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


Would an east based La Nina greatly reduce the risk of a 08/09 arctic outbreak pattern locking in for us? If so, my winter forecast may end up being correct. :)

By the way, just realized I made a big mistake in my winter forecast. I put in -1 to -2 degrees below average for temps. I meant to say 1 to 2 degrees below. I've since corrected it.

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Monty67
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:25 pm

abbyweather wrote:
stuffradio wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
I wonder which we will get? Nina 4 is warmer than Nina 3 but there is a significant drop in temps Nina 4 so... Thoughts? This is one area I feel I missed in my winter forecast and should have put more time into. Because whether its a West or East based Nina can be a big difference maker.

It's still safely an east based Nina currently.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


Would an east based La Nina greatly reduce the risk of a 08/09 arctic outbreak pattern locking in for us? If so, my winter forecast may end up being correct. :)

By the way, just realized I made a big mistake in my winter forecast. I put in -1 to -2 degrees below average for temps. I meant to say 1 to 2 degrees below. I've since corrected it.

I think everyone knew what you meant.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:29 pm

Monty67 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
stuffradio wrote:It's still safely an east based Nina currently.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


Would an east based La Nina greatly reduce the risk of a 08/09 arctic outbreak pattern locking in for us? If so, my winter forecast may end up being correct. :)

By the way, just realized I made a big mistake in my winter forecast. I put in -1 to -2 degrees below average for temps. I meant to say 1 to 2 degrees below. I've since corrected it.

I think everyone knew what you meant.


I assumed so too, but corrected it just in case and to be a perfectionist.

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Hawk
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:24 am

When speaking of weather forecasts, esp long range, the word perfectionist shud not be used ?Jr.MetMan? More like "impossible task". :lol: :lol: :lol:
..dreaming of....seeing some window splats even at this point..


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