Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

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John
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby John » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:54 am

abbyweather wrote:Abbotsford Weather Winter 2017/2018 Forecast

Please bare in mind that my forecast may not be as technical as some and perhaps may not be compiled the exact same way as others, due to my limited knowledge in very complex things such as QBO. However, I decided to take a shot at it and utilize the best of my knowledge. After all, if I screw this up big time, I don't have much to lose other than maybe being made fun of and I can handle that.

Its becoming more and more evident to me that this winter will be colder and snowier than normal. Based on current model data, I think we will bottom out a weak to maybe slightly moderate La Nina. Historically, our snowier winters have been during weak La Nina episodes. This is because stronger ones tend to be more on the cold side and Arctic Air is very dry, so its harder to get the moisture needed to produce snow. In addition to La Nina, we are also moving into a period of low solar activity. Solar has been declining in recent years and looking back at some of our colder/snowier winters, they have mostly fallen during a low solar event. At this point, I see no convincing evidence that this winter will be anything but colder and snowier than normal.

However, this does not mean we will see a repeat of last year. Last winter, we had a number of extended periods of very cold arctic air reloads and ample snowfall. Some localities of the lower mainland had snow on the ground for more than a month at a time. Even if we don’t see a repeat, we certainly could see more snow and cold than normal.

Looking at all the analogs, I’m going with 07/08 being the closest match even though that winter was during a strong La Nina event. No Nina episode is the same and while that winter was not super cold, it certainly was colder than normal and featured a number of short lived but in some cases major snow events. I’m going with the idea that we may not see a major arctic air pattern lock in for a good amount of time, but we will see many shots reach the coast and probably a number of coastal sliders as well producing marginal snow events with one or two widespread snowstorms.

I personally think temperatures will be roughly 1 to 2 below average for the DJF period, with the coldest arctic outbreak in January and the snowiest month in December. As for snowfall, expect to see perhaps 30-40 cm above average this winter. So YVR, which normally see’s 38 cm, could easily see 68 cm. Coquitlam’s average is 67 cm and this year could be around 107 cm. Abbotsford, a little less, maybe 90-100 cm. Overall, expect this winter to be full of fun snowy deserts for us all to enjoy.

For those interested, the analogs I used were:

1964/1965, 1971/1972, 1974/1975, 1984/1985, 1995/1996, 1996/1997, 07/08, 08/09,16/17

I tried to pick analogs that consisted of similar conditions as expected this year, best matched my predictions, and ultimately chose the one I think will end up closest this year.



Nice job little junior! Unfortunately long term forecast past 10 or even 5 days are a complete guess. We all have feelings and wishes what the winter will be like but no idea what will happen. That’s the neat thing about weather!

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Typeing3
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:27 am

Lock it in! :lol:
Image
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

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Hawk
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:30 pm

Nito...where are u? Where is ur warm anomolycast for winter 8-) 8-) 8-)
Enuf said

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Catnip
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Catnip » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:41 pm

Typeing3 wrote:Lock it in! :lol:
Image


Was it not calling for a Colder than average December not too long ago?
Coquitlam/Mundy Park
Elevation: 530ft

Personal Weather Station: http://tinyurl.com/ptjynsn

Hawk - "We are in PATTERN LOCK Jr!!! Who cares what the GFS and Euro weeklies say about 10 days from now hahahahahaha"

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AbbyJr
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby AbbyJr » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:55 pm

Catnip wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:Lock it in! :lol:
Image


Was it not calling for a Colder than average December not too long ago?


Yeah. CFS has been struggling with the overall pattern this year so far. I'm still thinking mid-late December we'll see something good. Though, I could be wrong. It'll be interesting to see what unfolds but I'm not putting too much stock in the long range seasonal forecasts as of yet.

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Typeing3
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:05 pm

Catnip wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:Lock it in! :lol:
Image


Was it not calling for a Colder than average December not too long ago?

Yeah it was. I didn't put much stock into it though as the analogs point to a relatively normal December. Which could mean an anomalously warm start to the month could easily be averaged out with an equally cold finish.

A below normal January is more likely based on the analogs.
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

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Hawk
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Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:47 pm

Ya looks like December could start out with the ugly GOA kickin some ass. Hopefully something changes sooner rather than later :x :x :x :x
Enuf said

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Typeing3
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Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:51 pm

Hawk wrote:Ya looks like December could start out with the ugly GOA kickin some ass. Hopefully something changes sooner rather than later :x :x :x :x

Mid Dec "warning shot" and a major arctic blast late in the month. 8-)
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

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Typeing3
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Posts: 4545
Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:10 pm

Dec "CanSIPS" update.
Image
Image
Image
Image
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

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Glacier
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Location: Okanagan

Re: Winter 2017/18 Discussion and Forecasts

Postby Glacier » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:11 pm

So far this winter has been absolutely BRUTAL! 12C COLDER than November 2016! So cold in fact, that my friend living in the Yukon escaped to Norway for a few months to escape the cold!

novmayo.png


PS. Atlin, BC was over 5C colder than average last month.
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