2017 September Heatwave Contest

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Glacier
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Location: Okanagan

2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Glacier » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:35 pm

Rules:
1) Predict low and high temps for Vancouver, Abbotsford, and Victoria for Saturday through Friday (2nd-7th). The low comes first, as in Saturday morning.
2) Predict the maximum high recorded in BC during the week.
3) Predict the location of the week's hottest temperature.
4) Predict the date with BC's hottest temperature.
5) Due by 11:59pm Friday, September 1st.
6) You can make early predictions, and then change them anytime before the deadline.

Scoring:

1) A sum total of the difference between the actual values and your predictions.
2) In the event of a tie, the winner is determined by whoever most closely predicts the province's weekly high.
3) If still tied, the winner is determined by whoever correctly picks the location recording the weekly high.
4) If still tied, the winner is determined by whoever chooses the right day (or whoever is closest to the right day).
5) If still tied, Abbey_wx tosses a coin.

Rules updated as of Friday, September 1st, 11:43 am.
Last edited by Glacier on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Abby_wx
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Abby_wx » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:26 pm

Some uncertainty about the duration... the 12z ECMWF cuts off the heat at the 6th, while the GFS is still warm on the 7th.
Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =IBCABBOT1

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Glacier
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Glacier » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:34 pm

So do we want to have a shorter period? Maybe 7th or 6th as the last date?

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Abby_wx
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Abby_wx » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:19 pm

Glacier wrote:So do we want to have a shorter period? Maybe 7th or 6th as the last date?


Well, the 18z GFS says it goes through the 8th. I guess we'll see what the ECMWF says, then we'll decide.
Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =IBCABBOT1

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Abby_wx
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Abby_wx » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:35 am

Okay, let's just do the 2nd-7th. We can always chop off a day at the end if it cools drastically.
Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =IBCABBOT1

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Glacier
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Glacier » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:47 am

Here's leighbug's forecast:

Image

It's going to get hot, but chances are she won't win.

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Abby_wx
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Abby_wx » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:22 pm

EC's predictions as of 4 pm:

Vancouver
16/25
18/28
16/28
17/29
15/27
14/26

Victoria
13/26
15/28
12/29
12/29
12/25
13/25

Abbotsford
15/30
18/31
16/32
16/33
16/30
15/28
Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =IBCABBOT1

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Glacier
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Location: Okanagan

Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Glacier » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:39 pm

Before I forget, here are my predictions:

Vancouver
14/25
17/28
15/28
14/28
13/24
11/23

Victoria
13/26
13/28
11/29
11/28
10/23
10/22

Abbotsford
14/30
16/32
15/33
14/32
13/30
12/28

Hottest spot: Port Alberni @ 37.9C on Monday, September 4th.
Last edited by Glacier on Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Mattman
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Mattman » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:16 pm

Vancouver
14/26
15/28
15/28
16/30
16/31
15/28

Victoria
14/27
15/28
15/29
15/29
16/28
14/26

Abbotsford
14/30
16/31
17/32
18/36
17/33
15/31

Hot spot: Lytton on Tuesday the 5th: 38.5C

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Abby_wx
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Location: Abbotsford, BC
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Re: 2017 September Heatwave Contest

Postby Abby_wx » Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:03 pm

Here are mine: (last updated @ 11:09 pm)

Vancouver
Sat 14/24
Sun 15/25
Mon 16/26
Tues 17/26
Wed 16/29
Thurs 16/24

Victoria
Sat 11/27
Sun 12/28
Mon 13/30
Tues 14/31
Wed 14/28
Thurs 14/23

Abbotsford
Sat 13/31
Sun 14/33
Mon 15/35
Tues 16/36
Wed 15/33
Thurs 16/25

Hot Spot: Hope 37.6C on Tuesday
Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =IBCABBOT1


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