La Nina and Snowfalls

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Monty67
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Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Monty67 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:09 am

So I did a little number crunching to show an apparent correlation between snowfall and La Nina winters that occur during periods of declining and low solar activity. There were 2 winters that didn't quite make the Nina threshold but had very notable events and those were 1985-86, (Crazy November event in 1985), and 1996-97 (The blizzard of 1996)

Winter of: / Snow at YXX / Snow at Shawnigan Lake
64-65 / 193.3cm / 168.1cm
71-72 / 158.2cm / 178.3cm
73-74 / 107.9cm / 94.5cm
74-75 / 96.1cm / 129.2cm
75-76 / 93.7cm / 105.8cm
84-85 / 88.4cm / 110.9cm
95-96 / 74.9cm / 74.6cm
07-08 / 111.2cm / 140.4cm
08-09 / 139.5cm / 194.0cm

Average / 118.1cm / 132.9cm

solarcycle-lanina.jpg



Below is the forecast for the next 2 solar cycles. Experts believe that we are entering a period of low activity. This may have the potential to deliver some better winters for us snow lovers. Only time will tell.

solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif


images6IY49DJL.jpg
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Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Monty67
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Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Monty67 » Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:38 pm

I calculated the snow totals for YVR for those winters as well.

64-65 / 140.5cm
71-72 / 122.7cm
73-74 / 56.9cm
74-75 / 71.9cm
75-76 / 85.9cm
84-85 / 66.1cm
95-96 / 33.8cm
07-08 / 39.2cm
08-09 / 113.2cm

Average / 81.1cm
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Abby_wx
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Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Abby_wx » Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:02 pm

Thanks for doing this research, Monty.

I think there may be something to this. Interesting that our most recent La Ninas a few years ago occurred during a period of increasing solar activity, which could explain why we didn't see as much snow.

Regardless, we all know these things work in cycles. It seems like five years (give or take) is about average for a turn around. The late 90's and early 2000's were bunk just like the last few years. That was followed by a particularly snowy cycle from about 2005 to 2009, which seemed to end around the time of the Olympics.
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Monty67
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Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Monty67 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:06 am

So, now we need to compare the snowfall totals for winters where the La Ninas occurred during a period of high or increasing solar activity. The winters of 70-71, 83-84 and 2010-11 were toughest to categorize, as 70-71 and 83-84 had high but decreasing solar and 2010-11 had low but increasing solar activity. I have included them in this group to try to give an equal number of years in each data set. 70-71 is clearly a snowy outlier.

Winter / Snow at YVR / Snow at YXX / Shawnigan Lake.
67-68 / 29.5cm / 46.7cm / 70.3cm
70-71 / 186.9cm / 189.4cm / 210.0cm
83-84 / 11.2cm / 10.0cm / 27.7cm
88-89 / 41.8cm / 67.5cm / 106.9cm
98-99 / 38.0cm / 49.9cm / 53.0cm
99-00 / 18.8cm / 22.9cm / 38.4cm
00-01 / 30.2cm / 30.0cm / 55.6cm
10-11 / 39.9cm / 53.2cm / 111.0cm
11-12 / 8.4cm / 50.0cm / 37.8cm

Average/ 45.0cm / 57.7cm / 79.0cm
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Monty67
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Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Monty67 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:10 am

Abby_wx wrote:Thanks for doing this research, Monty.

I think there may be something to this. Interesting that our most recent La Ninas a few years ago occurred during a period of increasing solar activity, which could explain why we didn't see as much snow.

Regardless, we all know these things work in cycles. It seems like five years (give or take) is about average for a turn around. The late 90's and early 2000's were bunk just like the last few years. That was followed by a particularly snowy cycle from about 2005 to 2009, which seemed to end around the time of the Olympics.

The 5 year cycle would make sense from a solar perspective. One solar cycle is roughly 11 years, so a flip every 5 to 6 (5.5) years would be about right.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Monty67
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Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Monty67 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:50 pm

Location / Average Snowfall / Low Solar / Increasing or High Solar

Shawnigan Lake / 75cm / 132.9cm (177%) / 79.0cm (105%)

Abbotsford (YXX) / 55.1cm / 118.1cm (214%) / 57.7cm (105%)

Vancouver (YVR) / 38.1cm / 81.1cm (213%) / 45.0cm (118%)
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Hawk
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Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Hawk » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:17 pm

nice stats...
that 210cm is impressive...Wowwwwww :shock: :shock: :shock:
That's 7 feet of snow omg
Enuf said

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Typeing3
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Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Typeing3 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:00 pm

Hawk wrote:nice stats...
that 210cm is impressive...Wowwwwww :shock: :shock: :shock:
That's 7 feet of snow omg

70-71 was an epic winter. In a span of just 5 days in January, YVR saw over 100cm of snow.
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Glacier
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Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Glacier » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:51 am

Typeing3 wrote:
Hawk wrote:nice stats...
that 210cm is impressive...Wowwwwww :shock: :shock: :shock:
That's 7 feet of snow omg

70-71 was an epic winter. In a span of just 5 days in January, YVR saw over 100cm of snow.

70-71 and 71-72 were the most impressive snowy winters in BC history. Even places like Kamloops got hammered day after day with snow until it was several feet deep on the ground.

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Canada Goose
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Re: La Nina and Snowfalls

Postby Canada Goose » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:21 pm

Capture d’écran 2017-09-14 à 20.21.04.jpg
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