February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

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Typeing3
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Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:16 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Monty67 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Well all models seem to agree that the EPO and PNA goes negative around the end of the month into early March. Could that be a good sign for an arctic outbreak down in the lower mainland? Or do you think the airmass would be too modified since we are moving away from the winter months?

It's too soon to predict how cold it may or may not get but some of the models are trending favourably. Late February and early March are still well with in our winter season, IMO. Cold and snow chances start to decrease more dramatically after the second week of March.


The GFS ensembles seem the best too me. I'm hoping for a March 1951 repeat though thats pretty unlikely. But Abby did manage 115 cm of snow then.

Very interesting stat: YVR didn't get measurable rain for the first 27 days of April 1951. :shock:

abbyweather
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Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby abbyweather » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:43 pm

Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Monty67 wrote:It's too soon to predict how cold it may or may not get but some of the models are trending favourably. Late February and early March are still well with in our winter season, IMO. Cold and snow chances start to decrease more dramatically after the second week of March.


The GFS ensembles seem the best too me. I'm hoping for a March 1951 repeat though thats pretty unlikely. But Abby did manage 115 cm of snow then.

Very interesting stat: YVR didn't get measurable rain for the first 27 days of April 1951. :shock:


Yup, sure here is. Here is the chart where I got the stats from...

march1951.jpg
march1951.jpg (90.11 KiB) Viewed 165 times

Typeing3
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Posts: 1113
Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Typeing3 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:13 pm

abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
The GFS ensembles seem the best too me. I'm hoping for a March 1951 repeat though thats pretty unlikely. But Abby did manage 115 cm of snow then.

Very interesting stat: YVR didn't get measurable rain for the first 27 days of April 1951. :shock:


Yup, sure here is. Here is the chart where I got the stats from...

march1951.jpg

EC is great for researching historical weather since there's lots of stations to choose from. I believe the oldest station in the LM is Agassiz which goes back to 1880 or thereabouts.

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Abby_wx
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Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Abby_wx » Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:36 pm

Hawk wrote:Anybody want more snow or is enough enough?? lol. I'm happy with what we got but i think it will be a chilly end of Feb into spring. i dunno. My new go to for predicts is SST's playing a big influence. We will see what the future holds i guess


It was a long wet fall and it's been a cold snowy winter, so I'm looking forward to spring. I know there's still a chance of something good happening, but it's going to be hard to beat what we saw earlier this month and in December. Of course, I would take a March 1951 repeat any day. There's always room for epic, but the chance of epic is always slight...
Near Hwy 1 McCallum exit; elevation 55 m (180 ft).

Winter 16/17 stats (Feb 9)...

Total snowfall: 106.4 cm
Days with snow: 17
Lows <= 0°C: 51
Highs <= 0°C: 21
Low min: -10.4°C (Dec 15th)
Low max: -4.3°C (Dec 17th)
Low wind chill: -14.0°C (Dec 16th)

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Leighbugs
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Location: Maple Ridge

Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Leighbugs » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:20 am

I agree Abby_wx. I'm more than ready for spring. Once that calendar flips to March I dont want to see any snow. Today was the first day I could feel a hint of early spring in the air. It was cloudy with sunny breaks and the odd sprinkle from a passing cloud, I even saw a rainbow. It was really nice.

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Hawk
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Location: Willoughby area, Langley

Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:44 am

06Z!!! :shock: :shock:
More snow in a week
OZEP and POD?

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Hawk
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Former Username: hawk
Location: Willoughby area, Langley

Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Hawk » Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:47 am

Ya i like the sun and warmer temps too. Especially on the transition up in temps. Even tho the SST's are chilly, we will still get warmer temps in March, although it may be chilly with precip. I'm sure we will see a 18C and sunny in March. YESSSSSSS
OZEP and POD?

Monty67
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Posts: 2586
Location: Shawnigan Lake, Southern Vancouver Island. 150m (500ft)

Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Monty67 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:00 am

Models continue to work on a cold finish to winter. Still more than a week out, but the trends are there.
Located at the north end of Shawnigan Lake. 500ft elevation

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Hound
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Location: N.E. Surrey, BC

Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Hound » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:00 am

Hawk wrote:06Z!!! :shock: :shock:
More snow in a week


Excellent! One more shot, then lets move to spring!
Fraser Heights, Surrey. (Elevation: 85 M. 278 Ft.)

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Glacier
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Re: February 2017 Current Conditions and Forecasts

Postby Glacier » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:15 am

Typeing3 wrote:
abbyweather wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:Very interesting stat: YVR didn't get measurable rain for the first 27 days of April 1951. :shock:


Yup, sure here is. Here is the chart where I got the stats from...

march1951.jpg

EC is great for researching historical weather since there's lots of stations to choose from. I believe the oldest station in the LM is Agassiz which goes back to 1880 or thereabouts.

The first weather stations in BC started in the 1870s. The first weather station was ESQUIMALT, which started in 1872, but only measured rain. It did not measure snow/precipitation or temperature. The first weather station to measure temperature and precipitation was SPENCES BRIDGE, which started in 1873.

As for weather stations with the longest records in BC, Agassiz tops the list along with Barkerville, though the Barkerville station closed down a year ago. Records began in 1889 for Agassiz and 1888 for Barkerville.

Besides Agassiz, the only other weather stations from the 1800s still in operation today are the Quatsino Lighthouse on northern Vancouver Island, Fort St. James, northwest of Prince George (though it seems this station may have moved around a bit over the years), Victoria Gonzales Heights, and Kaslo.

The other stations in BC that have 100+ years of data are Saanichton CDA (1915 to the present), Shawnigan Lake (1914 to the present), Bella Coola (1897 to 2002), Chillwack (1896-2014), Estevan Point (1908 to present), Golden (1905 to present), Vavenby (1913 to present), Vernon -- Coldstream Ranch (1900 to present), and Fauquier (1913 to 2015).

P.S. A lot of weather stations have closed in recent years, which is why the coldest place in BC will eventually be within 300km of Vancouver... https://questioningthedata.wordpress.co ... ace-in-bc/


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