HRDPS no longer experimental

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stuffradio
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HRDPS no longer experimental

Postby stuffradio » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:13 am

Effective yesterday, Environment Canada took the HRDPS out of experimental mode.

OPERATIONAL DECLARATION OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC
PREDICTION SYSTEM (HRDPS) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
(CMC)
EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 14, 2017, AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF RUNNING IN
EXPERIMENTAL MODE, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA WILL DECLARE ITS HIGH RESOLUTION
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (HRDPS V4.4.0) OPERATIONAL. THIS
SYSTEM EXECUTES 4 TIMES PER DAY FOR THE SYNOPTIC HOURS 00, 06, 12
AND 18 UTC, GENERATING FORECASTS OUT TO 48 HOURS.

THE HRDPS INCLUDES A 2-WAY COUPLING BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL
AND THE CANADIAN LAND DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM (CALDAS). THESE 2
SUB-SYSTEMS EXCHANGE DATA EVERY 6 HOURS IN A CONTINUOUS CYCLE. THE
SURFACE INITIAL CONDITIONS ARE PROVIDED TO THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL BY
CALDAS, WHICH IN TURN USES VARIOUS FIELDS (SURFACE PRESSURE,
PRECIPITATION, RADIATIVE FLUXES, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY, AND
WINDS) THAT ARE PREDICTED BY THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL DURING THE FIRST
6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TO PRODUCE NEW SURFACE FIELDS EVERY
6 HOURS. (NOTE THAT CALDAS IS ALSO BECOMING OPERATIONAL AT THE SAME
TIME AS THE HRDPS).

WITH THIS OPERATIONAL DECLARATION, A CORRECTION TO A KNOWN PROBLEM
RELATED TO THE FORECASTING OF ICE PELLETS (IP) WILL ALSO BE
IMPLEMENTED. THE EXPLICIT CONDENSATION SCHEME, MILBRANDT AND YAU
(MY), THAT WAS USED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL SYSTEM DID NOT FORECAST THE
IP TYPING WELL. THE SOLUTION IS TO PREDICT THE RAIN (RN), SNOW (SN),
FREEZING RAIN (FR), AS WELL AS THE IP TYPE, USING THE BOURGOUIN
DIAGNOSTIC TOOL. THIS METHOD IS CURRENTLY USED BY OTHER OPERATIONAL
SYSTEMS RUNNING AT THE CMC, INCLUDING THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC
PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS). OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE VERIFICATIONS
HAVE SHOWN NEUTRAL IMPACT ON THE PREDICTIONS OF RN, SN, AND FR,
WHILE THE IP FIELD HAS SHOWN A LARGE IMPROVEMENT WHEN THIS
DIAGNOSTIC TOOL IS USED.

THE HRDPS ALSO SHOWED AN OVERALL POSITIVE GAIN OVER THE RDPS WITH
RESPECT TO UPPER AIR AND SURFACE OBECTIVE SCORES. THIS OPERATIONAL
DECLARATION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE WIDE SPREAD USE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY REGIONAL FORECASTERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AS INDICATED BY A
RECENT SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSTIC SECTION (A
AND P) OF THE CMC.

PRODUCT AVAILABILITY
THE HRDPS-4.4.0 OUTPUT WILL NOW BE AVAILABLE MUCH SOONER THAN
BEFORE. WHEREAS THE AVAILABILITY OF OUTPUT FROM THE FOUR DAILY RUNS
OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRDPS VARIED BY RUN, THE RAW OUTPUT WILL NOW BE
AVAILABLE FROM THE OPERATIONAL HRDPS BY T+4:20 FOR ALL RUNS, WHICH
IS ANYWHERE FROM 10 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS SOONER THAN BEFORE, DEPENDING
ON THE RUN.

FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE TECHNICAL NOTE AVAILABLE AT THE
FOLLOWING LINK (IN LOWER CASE):
HTTP://COLLABORATION.CMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/C ... UIDE/DOCS/
LIB/TECHNOTE_HRDPS-420_20160907_E.PDF

FOR SPECIFIC QUESTIONS CONCERNING THIS IMPLEMENTATION, PLEASE WRITE
TO (IN LOWER CASE):
EC.PRODUCTION-INFO.EC(AT)CANADA.CA

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