Alberta weather - 2018

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lightningmanAB
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Alberta weather - 2018

Postby lightningmanAB » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:10 pm

Alberta weather - 2018

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lightningmanAB
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Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby lightningmanAB » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:15 pm

Here is the drought map for the USA. Looking at these may give a clue as to how the storms will be this coming thunderstorm season. Most of the moisture for thunderstorms in Alberta and Saskatchewan comes from crop moisture (evapotranspiration) locally and also from the USA. Rarely does moisture straight from the Gulf of Mexico make it up into Alberta. We are hoping that Montana, and North and South Dakota receive a lot more moisture during the rest of this winter and this spring to get those crops growing nicely.
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lightningmanAB
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Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby lightningmanAB » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:24 pm

lightningmanAB wrote:Here is the drought map for the USA. Looking at these may give a clue as to how the storms will be this coming thunderstorm season. Most of the moisture for thunderstorms in Alberta and Saskatchewan comes from crop moisture (evapotranspiration) locally and also from the USA. Rarely does moisture straight from the Gulf of Mexico make it up into Alberta. We are hoping that Montana, and North and South Dakota receive a lot more moisture during the rest of this winter and this spring to get those crops growing nicely.


In the Canadian prairies we could use more moisture as well. Here is the map for Canada as of Jan 31st:
cdm_1801a-eng.jpg
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lightningmanAB
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Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby lightningmanAB » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:31 pm

lightningmanAB wrote:
lightningmanAB wrote:Here is the drought map for the USA. Looking at these may give a clue as to how the storms will be this coming thunderstorm season. Most of the moisture for thunderstorms in Alberta and Saskatchewan comes from crop moisture (evapotranspiration) locally and also from the USA. Rarely does moisture straight from the Gulf of Mexico make it up into Alberta. We are hoping that Montana, and North and South Dakota receive a lot more moisture during the rest of this winter and this spring to get those crops growing nicely.


In the Canadian prairies we could use more moisture as well. Here is the map for Canada as of Jan 31st:
cdm_1801a-eng.jpg


Depending on which model run you look at I am often seeing a doughnut hole of minimal precip over areas where I want to see it most. Hopefully this spring and at least by June all of these areas will receive a good soaking and drought relief.
Today's 12Z GFS:
GFSUS_prec_precacc_384(2).png


Today's 18Z GFS:
GFSUS_prec_precacc_384(3).png
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Typeing3
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Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby Typeing3 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:45 pm

lightningmanAB wrote:Here is the drought map for the USA. Looking at these may give a clue as to how the storms will be this coming thunderstorm season. Most of the moisture for thunderstorms in Alberta and Saskatchewan comes from crop moisture (evapotranspiration) locally and also from the USA. Rarely does moisture straight from the Gulf of Mexico make it up into Alberta. We are hoping that Montana, and North and South Dakota receive a lot more moisture during the rest of this winter and this spring to get those crops growing nicely.

Shades of spring/summer 2011 and 2012 in the central plains. Shaping up to be a very hot and prolonged summer if this continues.
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

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lightningmanAB
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Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby lightningmanAB » Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:26 pm

Typeing3 wrote:
lightningmanAB wrote:Here is the drought map for the USA. Looking at these may give a clue as to how the storms will be this coming thunderstorm season. Most of the moisture for thunderstorms in Alberta and Saskatchewan comes from crop moisture (evapotranspiration) locally and also from the USA. Rarely does moisture straight from the Gulf of Mexico make it up into Alberta. We are hoping that Montana, and North and South Dakota receive a lot more moisture during the rest of this winter and this spring to get those crops growing nicely.

Shades of spring/summer 2011 and 2012 in the central plains. Shaping up to be a very hot and prolonged summer if this continues.

Hoping for spring rain. Did you live on the prairies for a time?

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Typeing3
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Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby Typeing3 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:28 pm

lightningmanAB wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:
lightningmanAB wrote:Here is the drought map for the USA. Looking at these may give a clue as to how the storms will be this coming thunderstorm season. Most of the moisture for thunderstorms in Alberta and Saskatchewan comes from crop moisture (evapotranspiration) locally and also from the USA. Rarely does moisture straight from the Gulf of Mexico make it up into Alberta. We are hoping that Montana, and North and South Dakota receive a lot more moisture during the rest of this winter and this spring to get those crops growing nicely.

Shades of spring/summer 2011 and 2012 in the central plains. Shaping up to be a very hot and prolonged summer if this continues.

Hoping for spring rain. Did you live on the prairies for a time?

Yep, you guys could do with a good soaking.

Haven't lived on the praries. I've passed through a couple times though.
East Coquitlam. Elevation 25m(80ft).

Spring/Summer 2018
Last freeze: April 2 (-0.8C)
First 15C: March 11 (17.9C)
First 20C: March 12 (21.4C)
First 25C: April 24 (25.3C)
First 30C: May 13 (30.8C)
Hottest Temp 2018: 31.3C (May 14)

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lightningmanAB
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Posts: 371

Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby lightningmanAB » Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:40 pm

Typeing3 wrote:
lightningmanAB wrote:
Typeing3 wrote:Shades of spring/summer 2011 and 2012 in the central plains. Shaping up to be a very hot and prolonged summer if this continues.

Hoping for spring rain. Did you live on the prairies for a time?

Yep, you guys could do with a good soaking.

Haven't lived on the praries. I've passed through a couple times though.

SW Alberta has a satisfactory snowpack at the moment but as you go east it gets drier. Today's GFS runs have the same pattern.
12Z GFS today for the next 10 days:
GFSNGP_prec_precacc_240.png


18Z GFS today for the next 10 days:
GFSNGP_prec_precacc_240(1).png
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Glacier
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Location: Okanagan

Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby Glacier » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:23 pm

lightningmanAB wrote:In the Canadian prairies we could use more moisture as well. Here is the map for Canada as of Jan 31st:
cdm_1801a-eng.jpg

That map looks cool, but looks like complete bunk. The drought somehow stops at the NWT/Nunavut border like that? Yukon/NWT border? The snowpack is normal or above in all of BC south of Fort Nelson, so labeling drought around Kamloops and Williams Lake is also bunk.

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lightningmanAB
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Posts: 371

Re: Alberta weather - 2018

Postby lightningmanAB » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:17 pm

Glacier wrote:
lightningmanAB wrote:In the Canadian prairies we could use more moisture as well. Here is the map for Canada as of Jan 31st:
cdm_1801a-eng.jpg

That map looks cool, but looks like complete bunk. The drought somehow stops at the NWT/Nunavut border like that? Yukon/NWT border? The snowpack is normal or above in all of BC south of Fort Nelson, so labeling drought around Kamloops and Williams Lake is also bunk.

For Nunavut, drought conditions were not analyzed. When did the snowpack become above normal? The date on the map is Jan 31st so hopefully the extra snow has eased some of the drought in the BC interior. The drought in southern Sask is real and for now is a concern... until they get some rain.


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