Alberta Thunderstorms - 2017 season

Typeing3
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Location: Coquitlam, Elevation 25m (80ft)

Re: Alberta Thunderstorms - 2017 season

Postby Typeing3 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:00 am

Apparently there was a confirmed tornado near Calgary on Monday night. http://www.cbc.ca/1.4200675

Lightningman - were you anywhere near where it was?

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Missionbcwx
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Former Username: UpperCedarWayMission
Location: Mission, B.C. Elevation: 440 Ft.

Re: Alberta Thunderstorms - 2017 season

Postby Missionbcwx » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:51 am

Typeing3 wrote:Apparently there was a confirmed tornado near Calgary on Monday night. http://www.cbc.ca/1.4200675

Lightningman - were you anywhere near where it was?
Yup I read this last night on the internet as well.
District of Mission, B.C. (on the fraser)

lightningmanAB
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Re: Alberta Thunderstorms - 2017 season

Postby lightningmanAB » Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:24 am

Typeing3 wrote:Apparently there was a confirmed tornado near Calgary on Monday night. http://www.cbc.ca/1.4200675

Lightningman - were you anywhere near where it was?


I did hear about that one. I was pretty far away from it at the time as I was chasing storms closer to Lethbridge on Monday evening. Not very many people saw the tornado on Monday evening as it was out in the farms west of Airdrie and it was brief.

There was a tornado near Breton Alberta on Thursday evening. I missed seeing the tornado by about 15-20 minutes but a number of other spotters saw it. I had to drive 2 hours north just to get into position to where I thought the storms will form and before I even reach my target, the storm was already ongoing another hour drive northwards. The tornado near Breton killed a horse and a cow. As far as I know these two animal deaths are the first I've heard of in Alberta since at least 2013.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/tornado-tears-through-edmonton-area-killing-livestock-taking-down-trees-1.3504304

lightningmanAB
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Re: Alberta Thunderstorms - 2017 season

Postby lightningmanAB » Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:25 pm

Kyle Brittain (https://twitter.com/calgarywxguy) has written a good write up on the threat for severe weather in Alberta for Sunday July 23, 2017:
https://albertathunderstormforecast.blogspot.ca/2017/07/july-23-cfd.html

lightningmanAB
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Posts: 283

Re: Alberta Thunderstorms - 2017 season

Postby lightningmanAB » Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:54 pm

lightningmanAB wrote:Kyle Brittain (https://twitter.com/calgarywxguy) has written a good write up on the threat for severe weather in Alberta for Sunday July 23, 2017:
https://albertathunderstormforecast.blogspot.ca/2017/07/july-23-cfd.html


Here is the 500mb level for 6pm MDT Sunday evening according to the 00Z NAM:
NAMWCAN_500_temp_024.png
NAMWCAN_500_temp_024.png (157 KiB) Viewed 74 times

It shows 55 knots at the 500mb level coming across the Rockies from the SW as an upper low pushes to the east. Height falls. Cooling aloft. The air mass over parts of Alberta mainly between Calgary and Edmonton quickly becomes unstable in the late afternoon and evening.

Here we can see a lee low form just north of Calgary:
NAMWCAN_sfc_temp_024.png
NAMWCAN_sfc_temp_024.png (144.49 KiB) Viewed 74 times


Where we see the higher moisture converging and streaming in from the east on the north side of the low is where the worst storms are likely:
NAMWCAN_sfc_30mbdewp_024.png
NAMWCAN_sfc_30mbdewp_024.png (147.13 KiB) Viewed 74 times

The moisture bullseye happens to be just northwest of Red Deer on that map.

Biggest concern from a storm lover's perspective is the lack of moisture in the boundary layer tomorrow. 15C dewpoint is satisfactory... but it doesn't seem to be very widespread on the models. 0-1km SRH (100-180) and 0-3km SRH (400-500) values for 6pm Sunday are impressive for Alberta. I believe they're the highest values so far this year. Strong winds seems to be the biggest threat... followed by hail, risk of a tornado, and possible very heavy downpours and localized flooding. I've seen CAPE values higher this year so I don't think the hail should be tooo huge... hopefully.


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