Alberta weather

lightningmanAB
Weather Nut
Posts: 268

Re: Alberta weather

Postby lightningmanAB » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:35 pm

lightningmanAB wrote:
lightningmanAB wrote:So I am hoping that tomorrow, Tuesday, April 18, 2017 will be my first storm chase in Alberta for the 2017 season.

ECCC puts out a wonderful forecast discussion each day for the Prairies (updated in the morning and early afternoon each day).
From their report:
"TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH WITH
A CONVERGENCE AREA CURRENTLY PROGGED THROUGH CLARESHOLM, LETHBRIDGE
AND CYPRESS HILLS. LIFTING WITH 14 AND 2 GIVES CAPES NEAR 600 J/KG. "
http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html

I think the 14 and 2 is likely referring to the surface temp and dewpoint. I am hoping the area of convergence will be closer to Calgary. If it was all the way down in Claresholm and Lethbridge it would be too far of a drive. Without going into the details, based on what I see on the HRDPS and NAM3KM models I expect to see a little storm somewhere east of Calgary.

NAM3KM shows pockets of 500-600 CAPE on Tuesday late afternoon / early eve in the area which is enough to get my interest and hopes up.


EC's update this morning on the FOCN:
IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE FOOTHILLS
NEAR NORDEGG INTO THE LETHBRIDGE AND MEDICINE HAT REGIONS THERE IS A
RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS SBCAPES ARE NEAR 500 J/KG WITH
30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER 0-6 KM, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED NEAR THE SURFACE.


EC's update this afternoon on the FOCN:
IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG A CONVERGENCE TROUGH FROM THE FOOTHILLS
NEAR CALGARY INTO THE LETHBRIDGE AND MEDICINE HAT REGIONS THERE IS A
RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-600 J/KG
RANGE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO RISEN INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA. DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE BUT GIVEN ALL THE
INGREDIENTS ABOVE SHOULD A STORM BE ABLE TO ACCESS THE AIRMASS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVERGENCE TROUGH A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION.


I drew a sounding and hodograph from RDPS model data for 3pm Calgary time to give me an idea of what I might expect:
4-18-17sounding.jpg

Based on the Skew T Log P prognosis sounding for 3pm today there is enough CAPE for some thunderstorms.


It was a bit of a bust today. Moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere was lacking. Also, the wind shear was a bit too strong for the weak amount of instability that we had. There were some thunderstorms around the region later in the evening due to a disturbance that approached from the west.

lightningmanAB
Weather Nut
Posts: 268

Re: Alberta weather

Postby lightningmanAB » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:13 pm

Did some storm watching today around the Calgary area. Went as far as Turner Valley where we saw some cloud to ground strikes. Frequency was about 1 per minute. There was a fair amount of pea sized hail as well.

Here is EC's discussion:
SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS COMBINED WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE FAVOURABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FROM OLDS
SOUTH TO LETHBRIDGE. BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ONLY A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DROP SOME DECENT SIZED HAIL.


Much farther to the southeast near Taber someone caught a gustnado.
https://twitter.com/ChaserGreg/status/856323830758785024

The ground in southern Alberta is more moist than this time last year so we're anticipating a higher frequency of severe storms this summer.

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Missionbcwx
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Former Username: UpperCedarWayMission
Location: Mission, B.C. Elevation: 440 Ft.

Re: Alberta weather

Postby Missionbcwx » Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:21 pm

Also posted in B.C. thread.

Environment Canada is warning Albertans to brace for an extended heat wave that is about to descend on virtually the entire province and last for days — if not weeks.

"These actually, for some places, could very well be record-breaking temperatures," senior climatologist David Phillips said Monday.

"This is clearly exceptional."

Heat warnings are already in effect in southeastern Alberta, including for the City of Medicine Hat, where temperatures are forecast to reach 32 C on Tuesday and 38 C by Saturday.

"This is forecast to be an unusually long-duration, high-temperature event and is currently expected to last for longer than a week," Environment Canada warned.

Phillips said the intense sun and heat is expected to touch nearly every corner of Alberta in early July.

"What impresses me about this particular heat wave ... is that it's provincewide," he said.

"From High River to High Level, my gosh, from Fort McMurray to Fort Macleod — everybody is going to be in it."

This summer is already shaping up to be much hotter than last year, Phillips noted.

"Last year, just to give you an example, Edmonton had no days above 30 C and they could see three this week," he said.

"Calgary had one day last year that got above 30 C. They've already had that in June and now they're going to see a whole spate of these in July."

While heat like this isn't unheard of in Alberta in the summer, it usually arrives later in the season.

"It's come a month before what we call the dog days of summer, which typically come toward the end of July and the beginning of August," Phillips said.

"This could very well be the pattern we're going to see for the rest of the summer," he added.

"Not as intensely and torridly warm as this — that would be quite something — but certainly our models seem to suggest, and so do the Americans', that we're in for, clearly, a warmer than normal summer."
District of Mission, B.C. (on the fraser)


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